Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.007494 0.008449 0.009495 0.010726 0.012141 0.013718 0.015614
2024-10-13 0.006231 0.007585 0.009200 0.011280 0.013905 0.017127 0.021417
2024-10-20 0.005168 0.006604 0.008413 0.010881 0.014195 0.018536 0.024731
2024-10-27 0.004464 0.005928 0.007857 0.010614 0.014509 0.019893 0.028041
2024-11-03 0.004028 0.005531 0.007588 0.010653 0.015183 0.021755 0.032244
2024-11-10 0.003799 0.005381 0.007622 0.011093 0.016447 0.024580 0.038245
2024-11-17 0.003443 0.005004 0.007282 0.010927 0.016756 0.025968 0.042153
2024-11-24 0.003195 0.004756 0.007100 0.010967 0.017370 0.027882 0.047169
2024-12-01 0.002920 0.004440 0.006778 0.010742 0.017511 0.029010 0.050951
2024-12-08 0.002777 0.004313 0.006737 0.010963 0.018411 0.031521 0.057587
2024-12-15 0.002602 0.004120 0.006568 0.010945 0.018886 0.033320 0.063128
2024-12-22 0.002362 0.003799 0.006161 0.010473 0.018486 0.033455 0.065378
2024-12-29 0.002207 0.003614 0.005977 0.010396 0.018840 0.035125 0.071191
2025-01-05 0.002165 0.003620 0.006123 0.010935 0.020435 0.039446 0.083470
2025-01-12 0.001985 0.003370 0.005793 0.010549 0.020167 0.039952 0.087325
2025-01-19 0.001842 0.003173 0.005544 0.010291 0.020123 0.040914 0.092397
2025-01-26 0.001753 0.003066 0.005451 0.010329 0.020692 0.043267 0.101247
2025-02-02 0.001720 0.003062 0.005547 0.010754 0.022133 0.047761 0.116353
2025-02-09 0.001619 0.002919 0.005368 0.010593 0.022270 0.049269 0.123942
2025-02-16 0.001548 0.002832 0.005288 0.010632 0.022858 0.051925 0.135189
2025-02-23 0.001456 0.002694 0.005097 0.010415 0.022828 0.053056 0.142328
2025-03-02 0.001416 0.002656 0.005104 0.010628 0.023837 0.056944 0.158386
2025-03-09 0.001355 0.002573 0.005011 0.010611 0.024286 0.059449 0.170788